Vive La France?
I've heard of making an offer they can't refuse, but this is making an offer they can't accept. Which, if one is reading the runes, is the point.
However, the nice thing about the UN is that it doesn't change things any more, since it's only concerned with states, and one side in this conflict isn't a state. Israel still can't defeat Hizbollah militarily, Lebanese and other Arab opinion will continue to inflame and Israel can't win (and if Israel can't win, Hizbollah have already won). I've no idea how this will end, but I do know that attacking Syria on the same scale as Lebanon will result in a staggering humanitarian crisis, given that that country is the only safe haven for the neighbouring shitpots that Mr. Bush and co. are busy stirring.
Will a UN force go in even if Hizbollah is still alive and kicking? Going to be hard to find volunteers for that ('hey, boys, the IDF have given up trying to kill this lot, they're really well armed, well motivated and fighting for their homeland, and your Rules of Engagement will be soft as butter, how about it?'). The French are being talked of as the leaders, which is a whole heap of fun (remember Algeria?). No one will trust the former colonial power when they've stitched up the Lebanese in a joint venture with George Bush.
Radio 5 news priorities tonight:
1) 3 civilians dead in Haifa missile attacks
2) 8 civilians dead in Beirut
3) 1 British soldier dead in Afghanistan
4) 10 Iraqis dead in Tikrit
Looks like the New Middle East project is going just wonderfully, eh?
They shoot UN forces, don't
They shoot UN forces, don't they?
The draft UN resolution has
The draft UN resolution has got some scope within it to attack Syria for supplying arms to Hesbollah - another unjustified attack done with the cover of a UN resolution, just like Iraq.
Amongst this seeming madness for war there is a rationale, and funnily enough it has to do with oil (btw before 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' was renamed it was called 'Operation Iraqi Liberation' or O.I.L for short).
Israel has invested heavily in Azeri oil production and the day before Lebanon was attacked the Ceyhan-Tblisi-Baku (BTC) oil pipeline, which routes the Caspian sea oil reserves to the Mediterranean was completed (just a coincedence I guess).
Israel would like that pipeline to go south through Lebanon or Syria from it's current end point in Turkey - there is no way Hesbollah or Syria will allow such a thing, hence the current situation.
Iran will be getting the Iraqi treatment sooner or later, i.e. divide and conquer. Anyone that thinks Iraq has gone bad for the US is mistaken, the situation there is exactly how they want it, Iraqis fighting amongst themselves (no doubt incited by US/UK covert operations - death squads, bombings etc.) while western companies suck the country dry.
The only questions that remains is timing and how to get around the Shanghi Cooperation Organisation, which exists purely to resist American domination in the region and protect it's precious oil. Anyone that thinks things are bad now may be in for a surprise when China and Russia say enough is enough.
Enjoy the western lifestyle while you can because it's not going to last for too much longer. U.S. Army draft age recently made 42. That should scare the shit out of everyone.
frog So much for the frogs
frog
So much for the frogs standing up for the lebanese people and against their own zionist lobby.
The street will have something to say on this .
Merde alors, indeed. As for
Merde alors, indeed.
As for invading Iran, Iran isn't Iraq, it's not got big power blocs and it does have at least a form of democracy. More importantly, the current leadership isn't universally hated, while America will be if Tehran starts getting the Shock'n'Awe treatment. All this means the Iranians would actually resist.
It's also, as people have pointed out, four times the land area and three times the population of Iraq, so there's no way a ground invasion can happen without mass international support from countries with really big armies or a draft in the USA.
Israel (without in-flight refuelling) can *just* hit targets in the west of Iran - their new kit can do this, which is currently being supplied (and, indeed, nicely run in over Beirut). Most of Iran is out of reach unless the US helps refuel them, and in any case they'd have to overfly Syria/Jordan and Iraq, which would be highly unpopular.
Syria, on the other hand, is only a few minutes flying time away.
The UN may concern itself
The UN may concern itself with states, but it has no influence over Israel. It can resolve until it is black in the face; if the Israelis don't fancy a resolution - daft or otherwise - they will just ignore it, as so many times before. With the USA guaranteed to be on your side, the UN is a paper tiger (or perhaps a paper Winnie-the-Pooh).
Tom, I agree that Iran is a
Tom, I agree that Iran is a totally different prospect to Iraq. They are far more sophisticated in military and diplomatic terms. However, one must remember that any US military action against Iran would almost certainly involve tactical nuclear weapons.
Jack Straw lost his job for saying the idea was nuts but it's in the Pentagon's plan. George Bush has constantly refused to rule out using nukes, so this suggests any attack, although probably conventional initially, would involve nukes at some stage.
As I mentioned attacking Syria would likely bring Iran in to the conflict, so the scene is set. It's all a matter of timing. Prehaps this is why Tony Blair will be staying on for at least one more year.
there's no way a ground invasion can happen without mass international support Yeah, that would be a UN resolution right? Besides, the US would only invade the south east corner of Iran to secure the Persian Gulf. The rest of the country would be bombed to kingdom come by then.
Don't forget, the Middle East is just a pawn in the geo-political oil battle between the US/UK/Israel axis and the Shanghi Cooperation Organisation.
There is some excellent analysis of the 'long war' motives and objectives here and here.
I meant the south west of
I meant the south west of Iran btw.
The lawyers have come up
The lawyers have come up with a proposition that is artfully crafted.The result is a proposition that ..
1. Gives the illusion of activity which conceals inactivity..
2. Whilst it sets up the opposition as unreasonable, uncharitable whingers who will never be satisfied.
3. Allows Israel to continue the unending destruction of the Lebanon state.
4. Sets up the Syrians and the Iranians as the villains of the plot.
5. Persists the illusion that US and France have been at odds and have now made up - they have in fact enjoyed joint military efforts ona alarge scale for years - France has a large fighter section and critical inflight fuelling at Dushanbe in Tajikistan to support US flights to Afghanisatna dn Iraq from Germany.
6. Allows the world to chatter on whilst the US re-fuels and re-arms Israel - ready some say for a final push (putsch ?) on Iran in October.
China and Russia remain inscrutable, but certainly not uninterested.
..and the oil price rises to $77 plus