The Future's Bright, The Future's Brown. Or is it?
Gordon has finally made his move after years of simmering resentment and it was done with precision. TB wanted to stay for another year or more. gordon wants the crown in the Spring, though the Premiership wouldn't make a bad Christmas present for him.
And so he moved. We will find out if he has forced Tony to announce a departure in public. I can understand Brown's motives, Tony has welshed on a couple of retirement promises already. If he had kept his word Brown would have beem PM for seven years now.
No matter what the date is, a dignified departure is out of the question. Gordon's got Tony by the balls. If Gordon orders a couple more of his loyalists to resign Tony's out.
How can Tony keep people loyal to him? remember that many MP's are most loyal to themselves and their ambitions, hence the 'loyal' Blairites swinging over to Gordon.
Why they want Tony out
This is about internal party politics and concerns; the plummeting decline in membership (Tony promised a million members in 1997), the financial crisis (Who would loan Labour money now? When will the Inspector call?) and the culling of councillors in the last and next elections, it's about what the party stands for, what its beliefs, its core values are. Blair has had a decade to tell us what exactly 'The Third Way' is.
It's about Iraq. It's about being hogtied to the US neo-cons. There are many Labour figures spinning the war in public, but in private Iraq is recognised as the biggest post-war cock up. The MOD and military are even more angry - it is their employees who are being killed and wounded for no clearly definable aim.
Why are British soldiers dying in Afghanistan right now? Because Tony and George didn't finish the job and diverted resources to Iraq.
Now they've returned to a regrouped Taliban. Now they're dying. With poor equipment and no clear mission. Privately this is understood throughout the government.
Tony's choices
So today Tony's going to make a statement. My guess is that it will be vague, not giving a timetable and crucially, not ruling out a quick exit. I think Blair will look at the future and dread it. Let's say he does give a timetable of a year, can you imagine what the last six months will be like for him?
His political grave will have carved on it the words 'He who lives by spin, dies by spin'.
I believe he'll choose the most dignified departure he can. something vague, then a 'Rose Garden moment when he announces his resignation wwith little or no notice. As he likes grandstanding, could he take his revenge by a shock resignation in his conference speech? I can picture him giving a barnstorming speech, listing all his achievements, really firing on all cylnders and then finishing it off with saying it's time to go.
Then he can do his legacy bit. Thatcher was never better in the Commons than the Question Time after her resignation. Tony admires her and this tactic will give him two months where he can let rip.
Will Brown get the crown?
I have long felt that Brown won't. I think we're in for another David Davis moment. Will party members and MP's really want a coronation? I think not as that won't really announce a change, and change is what Labour needs.
Brown is a creature of the shadows and a PM needs to bask in sunlight. I don't find Brown's abnility to disappear at the merest sign of trouble to be confidence building either and I think he might pay the same price as Heseltine did.
Reccomended Link
We get a characteristic take on events from the irrepressible Austin Mitchell MP
The Sun's editorial today
The Sun's editorial today indicates they are not expecting any early invites to no. 10 if Gordo the Brooding gets in. It puts their "Tone out by May" story yesterday into pretty solid context. An ennoblement for Ms Wade and her paramour?
Re: Gordo the brooding's
Re: Gordo the brooding's chances of inheritance, I always thought he'd have a Gerald Ford moment rather than a David Davis one - eg. succeed, but lose the subsequent election because frankly, he is unelectable. Not as unelectable, mind you, as Gautleiter John Reid, who I note is being touted in the Guardian as one half of a dream team with Hazel Blears. Now if there was one combination that would get me looking to a quick exit strategy, the thought of a future being harrangued by the Gautleiter and Minnie Mouse would be it.
In the meantime, the fruits of our ethical foreign policy continue to play out with tragic consequences for the people we were meant to help and the soldiers sent so dishonourably.
Blair is showing all the
Blair is showing all the signs of knowing that the game's up. The pressure will continue to build through more inspired resignations. He will not / cannot last much longer and will resign very soon. The country will rejoice. The deputy PM will take over, whoever he/she is at the time of Blair's resignation. I suspect even the odious thug Prescott knows that he couldn't get away with that move. Then the leadership contest will be put into overdrive. All sorts of people will come out of the woodwork and Brown will be roundly defeated. QED. Easy peasy. That's the way it will run... (I hope)
Talking of Blears, has
Talking of Blears, has anyone noticed she's been dressed up like a ginger dolly recently. Thousands of PR tossers on the payroll and this is the best they could do. To make Blears look human is hard enough, but softening it's voice and trying to feminise it is going way too far. It's good to know that we're paying for them to sell us crap we don't need and already have. Rumple stiltskin in a dress - no thanks.
I can't say I noticed any
I can't say I noticed any difference in Blears on TV last night. Mind you, I was too busy falling around laughing at her attempt to spin away the crisis with her 'I was in Burnley and they were talking about Big Broth--- sorry, schools and hospitals' schtick. (As told on both ITV and Newsnight - and probably on some late-night local radio phone in, given half a chance). She still looks like a stunned muppet on TV regardless - maybe the camera doesn't like her.
PS: Where is Prescott, by the way?
Yes where is the fat
Yes where is the fat cocktail sausage?
It's not as if he has anything else meaningful to do.
He's probably waiting in
He's probably waiting in that fish restaurant in Scotland for Tone and Gordo the Scowling to show up so he can do his banging heads together and reclaim his title of The Only Prole with Power in Parliament label. Or maybe exploring banging, full stop.
Prescott has been on a
Prescott has been on a "family holiday" presumably with Pauline on the Algarve. He is said to be returning two days early, so I am sure everything will soon be sorted.
I just worry that this will
I just worry that this will enable the Tories to get into power, on the back of some emabrassing behaviour by Lord Chirst Tony Blair, the man seems determined to go out in the worst way possible.
No worries. The Tories will
No worries. The Tories will win by a country mile at the next election.
The media's filtering of reality cuts both ways - it has blinded most of New Labour to its deep unpopularity and the swell of protest.
Blair's departure is irrelevant - it's too late now for any Labour leader to turn around Blair's 'heritage', let alone after another year's delay.
Personally, I don't believe Brown wants to inherit any part of it. I'm sure he already has a nice directorship in the City lined up. Whoever presides over the last days of Labour will reap what Blair has sown. Talk about a poisoned chalice.
Those jostling to succeed Blair are as as deluded as the man himself. At best they will get to enjoy a brief moment of ignominy and ridicule in the spotlight. And a career span as PM slightly shorter than the lifespan of a fruit-fly.