Dirty Bombs and Dirty Tricks - Litvinenko and Barot Cases Compared
Now someone has apparently been killed using a radioactive isotope (subject to confirmation), how does this fit into the commonly held view of politicians, security services (and tabloid editors) that Terrorists Will Attack Us With A Dirty Bomb?
Firstly, this seems to have been a particularly vicious but personal attack - given the latest suspect substance (Po-210) and the likely consequences of ingestion, the attacker must have known that they were killing a particular peson and killing them slowly enough to get headlines, using a method that would guarantee maximum exposure. In other words, Mr. Litvinenko was murdered at people, as an example of what happens if you cross whoever it was who did it.
Secondly, the attack method is consistent with the kind of things the KGB came up with (like the Markov ricin pellet) and seems to reflect the kind of thinking behind security services' predictions about what terrorists will come up with (the Wood Green 'ricin' trial). That kind of James Bond 'Q' gadget thinking isn't helpful when dealing with small groups of people who aren't as well resourced as MI6 or the KGB, and whose aim is mass casualties rather than targetted assassination. In fact the only people it seems to predict the behaviour of are those whose inspiration is from the world of intelligence agencies rather than real terrorists, and are too stupid to realise that you can't cause mass casualties using assassination methods.
Thirdly, and most importantly, the substance used gives a good indication as to how professional murderers would go about using radioactive weapons. Po-210, unlike what some wag has edited the Wikipedia entry to say (probably gone by now) is very nasty stuff - the classic combination of an alpha emitter with a short half-life and powerful particles means that swallowing some is like swallowing a Gatling gun with the trigger taped down. The trick is, of course, getting the target to swallow it - the actual amount can be tiny and still kill.
Comparing with the amateur wannabe Dhiren Barot, who wanted to use Am-241 from smoke alarms, highlights again why he's an amateur. While Am-241 is also an energetic alpha emitter it has a long half life (432 years against 138 days) and thus does far less damage at a time. You therefore need much more of it. You still have the problem of getting the target to ingest enough of it, multiplied by however many people you want to affect.
What's noticeable about this is that a real, successful, radiological attack appears to have been conducted in London in broad daylight, over three weeks ago, with a distinct lack of the high level huffing and puffing that follows the most trivial 'terrorist' no-plot - where's the threat level increase, where are the mobile radiation detectors at airports, where are the control orders applied to all ex-pat Russians ('excuse me, Mr. Abrahmovich, would you accompany me to the station?'). 'Can't be too careful, security is our watchword, fight them over there before we have to fight them here, blah, what if the Putin regime developed WMDs? Oh, have they? Um'.
In fact, the line taken by the agencies involved appears to be to play down the risk to the general public from the attack, despite not being aware of it until today. Hang on, I'm sure I read somewhere that we should be Really Scared of these sorts of things:
source MI6, via the Telegraph
...Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller said attacks could be chemical or nuclear and al-Qaeda was linked to many plots.
source
BBC
So radiological plots are really dangerous if they're being planned by idiots, and nothing to worry about when they're being carried out by professionals. That's cleared that up, then. Great.
UPDATE - odd spelling and grammar mistaks fixed.
For me, the media
For me, the media manipulation in this case is interesting.
The media coverage has been orchestrated by Pottinger, Lord Bell's firm, on behalf of Russian Godfather, Boris Berezovsky. Bell's clients include - don't laugh - Mark Thatcher, Coups Inc.
Interestingly, Litvinenko put it about that the London bombings were not carried out by muslims, but by Putin.
Maybe he was wasted because he wasn't on the same page as everyone else?
"an example of what happens
"an example of what happens if you cross whoever it was who did it"
It would help if whoever it was 'fessed up then. Difficult to avoid crossing people who are determined to remain anonymous...
Agree about the terrorist paranoia, though. HMG clearly sees its job as keeping us all in a permanent state of alarm, 'clinging to nurse, for fear of finding something worse'.
I'd suspect that the people
I'd suspect that the people at whom it was aimed know damn well it was aimed at them - I'm not an ex-KGB bloke making a nuisance of himself, so I suspect it wasn't at me. Even the Kremlin's denials seem rather half-hearted - I was going to have an open mind until I heard that, but they weren't the denials of an honest man, it seemed to me.
Absolutely right Tom- you
Absolutely right Tom- you stole my thunder mate,this country has been attacked by a foreign power,and whats Blair gonna do about it? yea right-absolutely nothing,just like when Putin was using outlawed vacuum bombs etc in Chechnya et al in 1999,Blair didn,t lift a finger then as now,Funny how the UsUkUn only pick on the "easy targets" eh?
Another thing occurs -
Another thing occurs - either this was state-sponsored terrorism (in which case it's the same thing we accuse Iran etc. of) or it was radiological weapons being passed by a state into the hands of terrorists (which is what we accused Saddam of being about to do).
Bit more on isotopes here
"Bhorat", eh?
"Bhorat", eh?
Another classic press
Another classic press release . . . just waiting for the Sun and BBC to confirm . . .
QUOTE: Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned in London by the FSB, converted to Islam some time ago, the Chechenpress news agency reported.
Before he died, Muslim rituals were perforned at his death bed. A mullah, invited from a London mosque, read the Sunnah Yasin.
Source: Pottingshed
Tom wrote: quote: "Secondly,
Tom wrote: quote:
"Secondly, the attack method is consistent with the kind of things the KGB came up with (like the Markov ricin pellet)"
Just for the record.
Markov was 20 years ago, and the KGB no longer exists.
There is NO history of the FSB taking out defectors. And even if, the FSB would have taken out Gordievsky or Rezun - much more iffy residents of Moscow On Thames.
There ARE however plenty of recent links with Yeltsin mobsters - all sorts of nasties - including radioactive material being put in someone's office chair.
And if you had links with the mob, wouldn't you hire someone as unethical as Tim Bell to get the finger pointed as far as possible in the opposite direction?
I've spoken with some
I've spoken with some Russian experts on this death. They seem to be 80% certain it wasn't the FSB but the military.
Re: "Just for the record.
Re: "Just for the record. Markov was 20 years ago, and the KGB no longer exists."
Sorry, I've stopped laughing now, but my sides do hurt.
Government:
Vladimir Putin - Former Head of the FSB, formerly with KGB in Dresden and Leningrad
Sergei Ivanov - Defence Minister - Formerly of the First Chief Directorate of the KGB
FSB:
Nikolai Patrushev - Cabinet Member & Director of the FSB - Formerly in KGB Counterintelligence Section
Viktor Pronichev (FSB First Deputy Director - Border Service) - Former Head of KGB's "Vympel" Counterterrorism Unit
Sergei Smirnov - FSB First Deputy Director - Former KGB Chekist
Vyacheslav Ushakov - Deputy Director - Formerly with Kirgizia KGB
Sergei Lebedev - Cabinet Member & Director of Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) - Formerly of the First Chief Directorate of the KGB
Those are just the current directors, the list goes on. The KGB is the elephant in the room, it may not 'exist' but it definitely exists. Interesting point about the Mob though - there are other elements of the former KGB, FSB and executive government who clearly are hand in hand with organised crime - Vladimir Anisimov, another FSB Director, resigned in September in a corruption scandal.
Markov was 20 years ago, and
Markov was 20 years ago, and the KGB no longer exists.
Both true, but remember in the Markov case the technique was developed by the KGB and passed to Bulgarian intelligence to carry out the operation. You can't uninvent things and you can't untrain a KGB man, and that organisation did, I'm sure you'll agree, spend an inordinate amount of time working out very clever ways of topping enemies. That knowledge hasn't evaporated. It doesn't have to be an official FSB or even state sponsored extra-mural operation for KGB technology to be used, and you'll notice I didn't claim any motivation or group was behind it, being more interested in the technology.
THE BRITISH KILLED HIM TO
THE BRITISH KILLED HIM TO BLAME THE RUSSIANS!!!nah it was miss Scarlet in the Conservatory! anyway who give a fuck?ex dead spy,,,noone really fuckin cares.Lot worse shit happenning on the planet.
Putin's new secret weapon
President Vladimir Putin came to the conclusion three years ago that Russia was sitting on a secret weapon more powerful than all its military might.
Ownership of 30% of the world's gas supply and being the second-biggest oil producer has given him a new and powerful economic bargaining counter.
The bad news for Britain is that two of our largest oil companies, BP and Shell, which between them have invested more than £10 billion in Russia, are in the firing line.
Posted Nov 24, 2006 10:20 AM PST
Category: RUSSIA
I sense a real motive for the Litvinenko assassination here. It gives the British media a reason to bash Putin without delving into the real issue, which is oil.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=414970&in_page_id=3
Northern caribou herds and
Northern caribou herds and the people who eat them are exposed to a radioactive element - Polonium-210 - that occurs naturally in the lichen eaten by the caribou.
Lichen. Sushi bars There has to be clue in there somewhere! we are getting close.
Wandering back to Tom's
Wandering back to Tom's point (eventually) it looks as if it's Christmas for John Reid already. Radiological terror is in print. According to today's Daily Mail, 'Thousands could be contaminated' . . . 'by Atom Bomb Material'.
They obviously missed the bit about you having to ingest the stuff.
As I see it, the only inconvenient thing about polonium 210 is that it doesn't make planes fall out of the sky, or go bang when mixed with baby milk or hair gel. But I'm sure the terrorists will think of something.
Polonium-210 is more common
Polonium-210 is more common cause of death than you might think: it is the thing that gets tobacco smokers.
Its short half-life means that it is highly active. Ingestion of 0.1 micrograms would far exceed the lethal radiation equivalent dose. A small grain of salt weighs 0.1 milligrams, so a lethal dose of Po-210 would be invisible to the naked eye.
Quote: 'a lethal dose of
Quote: 'a lethal dose of Po-210 would be invisible to the naked eye.'
OMG Dick. Does this mean that the dimensions of carry-on luggage will be further reduced?
Quote: 'a lethal dose of
Quote: 'a lethal dose of Po-210 would be invisible to the naked eye.'
OMG Dick. Does this mean that the dimensions of carry-on luggage will be further reduced?
I believe it already exceeds
I believe it already exceeds Ryan Air's luggage allowance.
Ah Dick,the board spook.
Ah Dick,the board spook.
One ton of uranium ore contains only about 100 micrograms (0.0001 grams) of polonium.
Due to its scarcity, polonium is usually produced by bombarding bismuth-209 with neutrons in a nuclear reactor. This forms bismuth-210, which has a half-life of 5 days. Bismuth-210 decays into polonium-210 through beta decay. Milligram amounts of polonium-210 have been produced by this method.
Polonium-210 is a very strong emitter of alpha particles. A single gram of polonium-210 creates 140 Watts of heat energy and is being considered as a lightweight heat source for thermoelectric power for spacecraft. Polonium-210 has a half-life of 138.39 days.
so dicky boy.not the type of material that will be plenty available I´d say.
In fact, Po-210 is used as
In fact, Po-210 is used as an anti-static agent in some record cleaning brushes. It is encapsulated in a ceramic so I don't know how easy it would be to extract and prepare in a soluble form. Private persons can also order small quantities of Po-210 from here: http://www.unitednuclear.com/isotopes.htm (look under alpha sources)
Overall, I think it is more likely to have come from a research reactor. Whether US, Russia, UK or Israel, I don't know.
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