Basra - Safe For Business!

The narrative of the post-Blair UK policy in Iraq is fairly simple - declare victory and leave, preferably without seeing anything disturbing on the way out, like a nascent Shia theocratic regime with large amounts of oil.  The latest definition of victory comes from head of the interestingly named 'Basra Development Commission', who is of course a Brown appointee from the inexhaustible supply of bankers and financiers that he uses on these occasions, one Michael Wareing (KPMG).  Apparently:

Wareing, 53, told The Observer that security had improved significantly
in recent months and was no longer an issue for investors. 'If you look
at many other economies in the world, particularly the oil-rich
economies, many of these places are quite challenging countries in
which to do business,' he said. 'Frankly, if you can successfully
operate in the Niger Delta, that is a very different benchmark from
imagining that Basra needs to be like London or Paris.'

Hang on, what was Kim Howells saying the other year?  Ah, yes, March 2006:

"People describe Iraq as a mess,"
"But it is a mess that can't launch an attack now on Iran; a mess that
won't be able to march into Kuwait; it's a mess that can't develop
nuclear weapons. So yes it's a mess but it's starting to look like the sort of
 mess that most of us live in."

[I'd forgotten that he said that invading Iraq would reduce the chances of an invasion of Iran.  Ho ho ho.]

What Mr. Wareing is actually saying is 'you don't need to have security and stability to pull the oil out, you just need to provide enough security in the right places, and fuck the locals'.  This is essentially what happens in the Niger delta, and is evidently Western capital's idea of a good place to do business.  Something's very, very wrong with the morals of the Brown government if they think that this attitude is how you do international development.

Meanwhile, what's really happening in Basra?  The conventional view, that Moqtada Sadr just gets stronger by waiting, is still holding true, he's renewed his ceasefire and seems to be waiting for the next elections which could well ratify his increasingly powerful position.  He is, of course, not the kind of chap our suits want to do business with, but he ticks all the boxes for Iraq - a Shia nationalist with proper anti-Saddam credentials, apparently reasonable relations with the Sunnis (his distance from Iran helps here), not involved in the current corrupt puppet government, enjoys mass support and who wants foreign troops out now.  W. Pat Lang has an interesting piece on him here.

Meanwhile, actually on the ground there [via Juan Cole]:

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the governor of Basra,  
Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, has charged the Iranian deputy consul
in that city of plotting his, al-Wa'ili's, assassination. He demanded
that the central government look into the charges. He said that the
Iranian consulate gave a large sum of money to one of his body guards
to discover his exact itinerary.

and, quoting the same Observer that's printing enthuasiastic bullshit from Brown's man:

Last week four British soldiers were injured, one seriously, by a
roadside bomb during a night patrol and three contractors, two Indian
and one Sri Lankan, died on the British base after it was hit by 19
rockets in 24 hours. Two private security company staff were injured
after a visit to the Basra Children's Hospital. Negotiations for the
release of a kidnapped British photojournalist continued without a
breakthrough.

In other words, the people we handed over to aren't in charge and the usual militia mob who forced us out to the airport are now trying to finish the job.  Still, we can be thankful that 'it's no longer an issue for investors', eh?