Q: When Is A Ceasefire Not A Ceasefire

A: When people are still being shot dead

It's been pretty obvious for ages that the Sadrists are the big unknown in Iraq - when would they jump?  Would they jump?  How well will they do in the elections?

Fortunately, Nouri al-Maliki has the answer to this - get the Americans to make them a much smaller unknown, by killing them.  In this, he's only following the advice of the last great unifying Iraqi leader (what was his name again?  Chap with a moustache and a broken neck.  He couldn't get enough dead Sadrists).

Naturally, the Western media has swallowed the line that when Nouri said ceasefire he actually meant ceasefire rather than open fire - the subsequent bloodshed is therefore entirely the fault of the people foolish enough to get in the way of the bullets.

What is interesting is that some Sunni groups have come on board with this - not entirely surprising, there isn't really a downside for them in being nice to the US at the moment, particularly if it means someone else's militia gets shot up.  Nouri's lot (or 'the Iranians' mates' as we must think of them - see this hilarious revelation that more than a few members of the brave Iraqi Security Forces receive Iranian Revolutionary Guards pensions for services rendered) have come up with a wizard wheeze based, apparently, on musical chairs.  He's called for militias to disarm, unless they aren't militias.  Well, the Sunni militia aren't militias, they're Concerned Local Citizens or Sahwa.  The Badr Corps militia aren't a militia, they're the Iraqi Security Forces.  The Kurdish militia aren't militia, they're peshmerga or the Kurdish National Guard.  Who's left without a seat?  Ah, it's you Muqtada!  Sorry, old chap, I've got bad news:

“The new election law will prevent any party that has weapons or runs a militia from contesting elections.”

Oh dear, it's a Keep Muqtada Out law, then?  That'll go down well.

Watch for this evolving narrative over the next few days:

• Everything's going just great
• The Iraqi Government is going to crush these rogue criminal terrorists
• This indicates that everything's going just great
• This indicates why we have to keep troops there forever
• They're all Iranians anyway
• Bombs away!