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Phil 'Maths Wizard' Taylor - The Brains Behind Andrew Gilligan? | Blairwatch

Phil 'Maths Wizard' Taylor - The Brains Behind Andrew Gilligan?

It's no surprise to find Phil Taylor at the bottom of an Evening Standard Ken-savaging piece nominally on the subject of transport.  After all, every nasty Thatcherite in London must have been asked to step up and have a swing by now (why *are* they so nasty?  Every time I read something by one of these clowns it's like being choked in foul smelling soot coughed up from the chimney of a Third World dioxin plant.  I feel the need to wash afterwards. Really, the Nasty Party never went away, did it).

Cough.

Anyway, the Tory Troll, I'm glad to say, links to us in their critique of Taylor's contribution to an Evening Standard hack job, rightly pointing out that relying on data analysis from a man who couldn't get the Oyster bus fare right isn't great journalism.  However, this is Andrew Gilligan, whom one must not criticise because other journalists like him and he's won awards and he nearly got Blair the sack.  Crap.  If the bugger had done his job properly in 2003 we might have been spared four years of Tony Blair, so I've got no sympathy, particularly as he seems intent on foisting, without any regard for how much of a mess he'd make of it, a ruthlessly ambitious but totally inexperienced right wing Tory on my city, purely out of spite.  Selfish twat.

In this case, Gilligan's well-through-the-bottom-of-the-barrel article quotes an anonymous (but clearly congestion charge hating) economist as saying the charge has brought in £938m, while Taylor says £1.2bn.  Eh?  Which is it?  He claims that it was supposed to earn £200m a year (£214m, actually, from TfL board minutes), implying that it doesn't, but also says that Capita's (excessive) take of 60%+ (42% according to TfL) is £130m, which implies the charge brings in about, er, £200m a year (in 2004/5, net revenues were £90m, according to TfL's annual report, and the Fifth Annual Impacts document reports £124m, £101m spent on buses, all legally ringfenced for public transport and reportable to the Secretary of State at four year intervals).

It's interesting that the two vehement opponents quoted are anonymous and a Tory councillor of an extreme Thatcherite persuasion who inevitably doesn't understand transport systems, but does understand how to pick a few items of data and construct an argument backwards that fits his world view.  Why is it surprising that the money has 'gone', by the way?  TfL are quite adamant that spending the profit on public transport was the point anyway, so they're doing what they said they'd do.  They're also quite clear that raising revenue is the sixth most important thing on the list of congestion charge benefits, after reducing congestion, improving bus services, improving journey time reliability for car drivers, making distributing goods and services more efficient and reducing vehicle emissions.

The giveaway is that there's no actual attempt to challenge TfL's figures, which if they were so obviously wrong that even a Tory could spot it, should surely be fairly easy, particularly given the legal reporting requirements?

The one quote from someone who might be expected to know something about it without actually being biased is, unsurprisingly, in favour of congestion charging as a concept, because it reduces congestion by encouraging modal shift.  The clue's in the name, guys.  The proof of the pudding, however, is in the eating, which is that fewer cars drive into central London, bus use is up and road deaths are quite remarkably reduced.

There are other figures in the article that don't agree with other measures elsewhere - fraud on bendy buses is now 'nearly 10%, £6m' whereas the other sources I've read said '8%, £8m', which implies bendy bus revenue should be either under £60m or £100m, which is a substantial discrepency.  Elsewhere he mentions court cases about Croydon Tramlink's PFI contract, without mentioning that it was a bad (Tory, subsequently backed by New Labour) deal that has now been terminated and brought under proper integrated TfL control, saving millions and allowing improvements for passengers without having to fart around giving the private sector their cut.  Nor does he mention Westminster Council's court case against the congestion charge.  Blaming Ken for trying to stop Metronet is just bizarre, since the Conservatives opposed PPP at the time and gave Livingstone warm applause at their conference for opposing it.  Its subsequent collapse and the consequent delays to Tube improvements prove that Ken was right all along, which is the cue for the Tories to pretend they'd never agreed with Ken in the first place.  A rare sight of rats joining a sunken ship there.

The article then degenerates into a series of meaningless statistics intended to give the impression that the city adminstration is costing a fortune without mentioning that it's actually doing a lot more, too.  I get the impression Gilligan can knock this stuff out in his sleep.  Award-winning my arse.

Bollocks to him.  If you want good journalism go to bloggers.  Here are three.  If you don't like them I have others.  Unlike Associated Newspapers, they don't have highly lucrative contracts with Transport for London to distribute crappy freesheets at Tube stations coming up for renewal in 2 years time.

Just to clear up some

Just to clear up some confusion the CC took £930 million up until the end of 2006/7 and about £1.2 billion up until the end of 2007/8. 
 
I am sorry guys but the TfL figures and mine pretty much come out the same. 
 
They say they have £382 million net.  I say yes when you look at the revenue account but when you then subtract £322 million of capital costs and £18 million (my estimate) for R&D and consultation that leaves about £40 million out of £1.2 billion.  There will be some small differences as my figures for the year just ended are estimates - TfL will publish them in June. 
 
See all figures on spreadsheet here:
 
 
Some might say that it is not fair to weigh the capital costs in the balance but remember that the ANPR technology is just a temporary solution on the way to tag and beacon and that all the capital is technology and cameras left out in the rain so it is hard to make a case that any of it is going to last very long.  Five years maybe but not 20. 
 
On a cash flow basis this scheme has taken £1.2 billion off Londoners in 5 years and produced no net cash to speak of.  If this is competence then no thanks!  If Joe Blow thought that all but 14p of his £8 Congestion Charge was just going to be spent on the charge itself he would happily strangle Livingstone - which is why he has been at such pains to hide this information. 
 
The claim that the CC is generating £124 million a year is a pretty straight lie.  This link shows you the numbers hidden in the back of TfL annual report last year:
 
 
They claimed £124 million in 2005/6 but this number ignored indirect costs which  the Audit Commission makes them put in taking the number down to £107 million.  The next year their revenue went down and their costs went up so the surplus, as signed off by the Audit Commission, was only £89 million.  The CC is not run out of a garage so excluding indirect costs is just lying.  As I say when you then throw in the capital costs and other below the line costs and you consider it lost money and only made a tiny surplus in the next year you end up with pretty much zero net cash after FIVE years.  You wouldn't run a business like this. 

 

And so, Mr Taylor, what is

And so, Mr Taylor, what is your policy for traffic congestion in London? 

We know that with Emissions

We know that with Emissions Related Congestion Charging the ex-mayor's policy was to let in a huge number of cars for free. 

 

There are enough disincentives to drive in already with rocketing fuel duty and the expense and lack of central London parking.  Most of the people that drive in either have to to deliver materials, etc or they have a parking space and would probably be prepared to pay pretty much any price to keep driving in, at least one that would have adverse economic consequences on commercial drivers if anyone tried to levy it.  The new mayor intends to keep the original zone and consult on the Western Extension, which itself increased congestion as the well-heeled of west London started to drive more.  I have at least two Notting Hill friends who think the Western Extension, combined with K&C's residents parking policy makes London eminently, and cheaply, drivable. 

 

Our new mayor has proposed looking at traffic light timing to ease traffic flow and reduce congestion amongst a range of measures to make walking, cycling and public transport more attractive.  Not letting small vehicles get in free will have an immediate positive impact.  Doh! 

 


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